Bellingham's Blueprint for a Thriving Future: A Growth Mindset and Proactive Planning

In response to the region’s ongoing housing shortage and affordability challenges, Bellingham’s endorsement of Whatcom County’s Alternative 2 in the Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) positions the city for sustainable growth and resilience against the unexpected challenges that come with it. This growth strategy helps safeguard the city against future housing shortages, mitigates the risk of sprawl in rural areas, and ensures that infrastructure investments are timely, efficient, and aligned with the evolving housing and employment needs of Bellingham’s residents.

Whatcom County’s Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) evaluates four land use scenarios for the comprehensive plan update: a No Action (status quo) scenario, Alternative 1 (Medium Growth), Alternative 2 (Multi-Jurisdictional Resolution), and Alternative 3 (High Growth). Alternative 2 stands out as a balanced “medium-high” growth strategy, planning for roughly 303,438 residents countywide by 2045, or 67,638 new residents between 2023 and 2045. This projection is higher than the state’s “most likely” forecast but lower than the high-growth scenario – effectively a realistic middle path.

Crucially, this growth estimate was jointly agreed upon by the County and all seven cities through a multi-jurisdictional resolution. As County planning staff described, Alternative 2 uses a growth rate “not too high and not too low” and “allocates the growth the way the cities and county want … supporting [each jurisdiction’s] intentions.” In other words, Alternative 2 reflects what local leaders believe will actually occur and what they are prepared to accommodate. By choosing a realistic yet proactive growth target, Bellingham is planning ahead for needed housing and jobs rather than being caught unprepared by faster growth – ensuring there is enough land, infrastructure, and zoning capacity for the homes and workplaces our growing community will require.

In the City’s comments on the DEIS, planners emphasized that selecting a somewhat higher population trajectory (Alternative 2 instead of the bare-minimum medium) provides a “resilient, proactive land use plan” to meet housing and infrastructure needs. If every city only planned for the exact medium forecast, any shortfall would push overflow growth into unplanned rural areas. By “anticipating…a population growth projection…incrementally higher than the ‘medium’”, Bellingham and other cities can ensure “adequate lands are available…to accommodate needed housing into the future”, even if regulations tighten or unexpected demand arises.

In short, Alternative 2’s realistic growth projection gives Bellingham a buffer and a plan – a first step toward solving our housing supply shortage rather than perpetuating it. It strikes a careful balance, accepting that growth is coming while proactively planning for it in a sustainable way that promotes environmental, economic, and social resilience.

Preventing Sprawl with Urban Development

One of the strongest arguments in favor of Alternative 2 is how it directs growth into urban areas and away from rural sprawl. Under this scenario, about 87% of new population growth through 2045 would be accommodated within cities and their Urban Growth Areas (UGAs), with only 13% allocated to rural areas. This is the most urban-focused distribution of any option. By comparison, the Medium Growth alternative (Alternative 1) would funnel a larger share (about 19%) of growth into rural parts of the county, risking more scattered development on farmlands and forests, while the High Growth alternative (Alternative 3) also relies on significant rural expansion. Alternative 2 best aligns with Washington’s Growth Management Act goals, which call for “encourage[ing] a greater share of growth in urban areas” and “protect[ing] critical areas” by conserving rural and resource lands. This means fewer houses scattered on county roads, fewer forests and farms cleared for development, and less disturbance to wildlife habitat. By minimizing sprawl, Bellingham will avoid the hidden costs that come with it – the loss of green spaces, longer commutes, and expensive extensions of utilities and emergency services to rural subdivisions.

Focusing growth in Bellingham and its UGAs is not just good for the environment – it’s also economical. When new homes and businesses are built within contiguous urban areas, infrastructure can be provided more efficiently. For example, police, fire, and schools can serve more people without vastly expanding their service territory. Roads are shorter and easier to maintain which will help reduce vehicle miles traveled and associated carbon emissions compared to more sprawl-heavy scenarios. With more people living near jobs, schools, and shops, it becomes more convenient for residents to walk, bike, or take transit, and those who do drive won’t be driving as far. Concentrating growth in Bellingham improves opportunities for more modern transit and other alternatives to driving, and makes public services more accessible.

In sum, Alternative 2 steers growth to the right places, preventing sprawl. It channels development into areas where there is existing or nearby infrastructure, and it limits new development in ecologically sensitive zones. The result is a growth pattern that keeps Bellingham’s overall environmental impacts low.

Addressing Bellingham's Housing Crisis: It’s About Supply

Bellingham’s housing woes do not exist in a vacuum – they reflect a nationwide housing affordability crisis that has been building for years. A recent Brookings Institution analysis by economists Edward Glaeser and Joseph Gyourko finds that the housing crisis stems largely from the decline in housing supply. In the mid-20th century, America built housing at a breakneck pace – adding roughly 50 million homes in the 1950s and 1960s alone. But since then, the rate of construction has slowed dramatically. Nationally, housing production growth in the 1980s and 1990s fell to about half the rate of the postwar decades, and it dropped even further in the 2010s. This long-term slowdown means that even as population and housing demand grew, the supply of homes did not keep up. The result? A chronic shortage of housing units, which drives prices up. As Glaeser and Gyourko conclude, “a downward shift in the supply of housing has led housing in the U.S. to become increasingly unaffordable.” In plain terms, we haven’t been building enough homes, and basic economics tells us that when supply lags far behind demand, prices surge beyond reach. This supply crunch is a key culprit behind Bellingham’s housing and affordability crisis. Our city’s population grew briskly in recent years, but housing construction did not match it for a number of reasons including the lack of buildable, infrastructure-ready land. This has resulted in tight inventory and bidding wars on homes. The lesson from the data is clear: to restore affordability, communities must build more housing.

Alternative 2 positions Bellingham to do exactly that. Past decisions to plan for the status quo medium growth projection have contributed to Bellingham’s housing and affordability crisis as the city has not had adequate land for housing. By adopting a growth scenario that acknowledges the true demand (a medium-high forecast) for housing, it gets at the root cause of the affordability issue – lack of supply. By proactively planning for growth, rather than resisting it, the City of Bellingham is positioned for a future where supply and demand are more in balance, and where working families can find attainable homes.

Expanding Housing Supply and Homeownership Opportunities

For many families, a home is not just shelter but their greatest financial asset. Homeownership is one of the “most effective ways to build wealth,” often serving as a forced savings plan and source of equity. Creating opportunities for people to get ahead and thrive in Bellingham requires expanded access to homeownership. The contrast in wealth between owners and renters is stark: according to Federal Reserve data, the median net worth of homeowners is about 80 times greater than that of renters. This astounding gap reflects the power of owning an appreciating asset like a home. It means more young families can put down roots and invest in their community. It means more people have stable and predictable housing costs (a fixed mortgage instead of rising rents). It also means a broader tax base and more stable community – homeowners tend to stay in place longer, get involved in local schools and organizations, and maintain their properties, all of which strengthens a city’s social fabric.

By integrating Bellingham’s land reserves into the city for new housing developments, Alternative 2 not only prevents sprawl but it provides a foundation for Bellingham to create more entry points into homeownership– new neighborhoods where first-time buyers can purchase an affordable townhome, or where a growing family can find a single-family house that suits their needs. These opportunities have been in short supply in recent years, as Bellingham’s limited land and zoning have constrained home construction. As new homes are built, more Bellingham residents will be able to gain essential financial security. Over time, this will narrow the growing wealth gap and ensure that the prosperity of our community is broadly shared. Analysts note that recent housing wealth gains have dramatically widened the gap between owners and renters, and that increasing housing supply, as Alternative 2 will do, is critical to prevent this gap from widening further.

A Livable, Inclusive, and Resilient Future

In sum, the City of Bellingham’s support for Alternative 2 is a responsible choice for Bellingham’s future – economically, socially, and environmentally. It offers a comprehensive growth strategy that is grounded in reality and guided by our community’s values. Environmentally, it’s the best option: it limits rural sprawl, protects farmlands and watersheds, reduces carbon emissions from long commutes, and channels growth into areas where impacts can be managed. Economically, it strengthens Bellingham’s role as the region’s job center, creates the conditions for new businesses and workforce expansion, and avoids the costly inefficiencies of scattered development. Socially, it addresses our housing affordability crisis at its core by ensuring we have enough land for new homes and a diverse mix of housing types – including those that enable homeownership and long-term stability for families. As the Brookings research and many experts have indicated, we cannot solve housing affordability without increasing housing supply. Alternative 2 embraces that challenge by preparing Bellingham to grow in a balanced way.

Perhaps most importantly, Alternative 2 promotes an inclusive and livable Bellingham. It is a plan that says yes – yes to welcoming new residents, yes to providing housing for people across the income spectrum, yes to preserving the natural beauty around us, and yes to doing all this through thoughtful planning. We have the opportunity now to shape a future city that remains affordable, vibrant, and resilient for the next generation. The next 20 years will bring change whether we plan for it or not, and Alternative 2 is our best shot at guiding that change for the better. By adopting this strategy, Whatcom County and Bellingham can set a course toward smart growth, environmental stewardship, and community vitality. Alternative 2 is not about unchecked growth; it’s about managed growth – growing within our means and values. As residents, we all want a future where our children can find jobs and homes locally, where traffic isn’t gridlocked, where farms and forests thrive alongside neighborhoods, and where prosperity doesn’t mean pushing people out. Alternative 2 offers that future.

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Housing for Bellingham is a community resource that works to inform the public about the processes and terminology associated with housing to encourage greater public input for housing and land-use planning policies.